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Daily US Equity Report 2026-07-15 (Wed)

IBM's worst-ever crash (-25.21%) dragged the Dow, but cool June CPI (3.5%), across-the-board bank-earnings beats and a memory-chain V-reversal lifted the Nasdaq +0.90% to 26,107.01; S&P +0.38% to 7,543.59. The 20D momentum list rebuilt 0→4 names (PANW/CRWD/NET/HOOD). 3-day free trial, cancel anytim

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U.S. EQUITIES DAILY REPORT

See other markets →Taiwan · A-Shares · Memory/AI

U.S. 07/15　[7/14 (Tue) IBM's worst crash on record -25.21%dragged the Dow, but cool CPI + bank earnings + a memory rebound lifted the Nasdaq: IBM warned as customers shifted budgets toward memory/servers, which instead became ironclad proof of the memory bull case，SKHY +26.32% / SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92%、SMH +2.51% V-reversal; CRWD +12.14% on a cybersecurity surge, GS +9% on earnings; June CPI 3.5% < expected, core 2.6%; S&P +0.38% to 7,543.59, Nasdaq +0.90% to 26,107.01, Dow +0.02% to 52,508.27; VIX -3.85% to 16.50, breadth turned green 92:82; 20D list rebuilt 0→4 names, 5D board holds 1 (BABA)]

Data as of: 2026-07-14 (Tue), actual U.S. close　·　Generated: Taipei 7/15 07:00

🎯 Today's (7/15) Key Watchpoints

One-line summary

7/14 (Tue) "IBM's crash turned out to be ironclad proof of the memory bull" — a single warning reversed the 7/13 bloodbath in one day: IBM pre-market warned Q2 revenue of $17.2B (below the $17.86B consensus) and EPS $2.93 (below $3.02); the stock plunged -25.21% to $217.07 (worst single day since 1962), single-handedly pinning the Dow (+0.02%, near flat). But the main cause of the crash, in CEO Krishna's blunt words: "in late June customers shifted quarterly capex toward servers/storage/memory, pulling orders forward ahead of price hikes" — which instead confirmed an explosion in memory/hardware demand: the memory chain V-reversed SKHY +26.32% / SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% / STX +2.05% / WDC +1.40%、SMH +2.51%. The same day June CPI 3.5% (< 3.8% expected), core 2.6% (energy eased on the Iran ceasefire) + all five major banks beat expectations (GS +9%, profit +78%) = cool inflation + strong earnings, a twin engine. All three indexes closed green: S&P +0.38% to 7,543.59, Nasdaq +0.90% to 26,107.01; VIX -3.85% to 16.50, breadth turned green 92:82；20D list rebuilt 0→4 names (PANW/CRWD/NET/HOOD), 5D board holds 1（BABA）。

Dominant themes

▲ Memory/semis V-reversal + cybersecurity + investment banks (earnings)　SKHY +26.32%、CRWD +12.14%、GS +9.00%、DELL +7.12%、PANW +6.84%、SNDK +5.01%、MU +4.92%、LRCX +4.90%、NET +4.53%、INTC +4.50%、SCCO +4.50%、NVDA +4.06%、FTNT +3.87%

▼ IBM crash + medtech/pharma + high-multiple software/CPU　IBM -25.21%, ISRG -6.78%, SYK -6.15%, ARM -5.96%, NOW -5.76%, C -5.29%, MDT -5.11%, BMY -4.03%, ABT -3.42%, PGR -3.37%, QCOM -3.20%

↳ 「One negative, two readings": IBM's revenue miss came from customers 'grabbing memory' = software hurt, hardware/memory benefits; within a single day the market repriced the 7/13 memory panic entirely in reverse; layered with cool CPI (yields down to 4.59%) + across-the-board bank-earnings beats, risk-on money piled back into semis. The reverse selloff concentrated in medtech/pharma (ISRG/SYK/MDT/BMY/ABT) and high-multiple software (NOW -5.76%) = a textbook 'sell defensives, buy cyclicals/tech' rotation.

Policy & Liquidity

June CPI cooled across the board　Headline CPI m/m -0.4%, y/y fell to 3.5% (below the 3.8% expected); core flat m/m, y/y 2.6% — the energy component was driven by oil pulling back after the fragile Iran ceasefire (contributing over 100% of the monthly decline).10Y fell to about 4.59% (-2bp), DXY 100.94 (-0.33%); in congressional testimony Warsh said it was 'improving but not job done,' preserving flexibility for the 7/28-29 FOMC.

Q2 bank earnings season opens with across-the-board beats　GS profit $6.63B (+78%, equities trading +72% / investment banking +55%), Citi $5.8B (+45%), BofA $9.1B (+27%), WFC $6.41B (+17%), all beating expectations — though Citi fell -5.29% (profit-taking) while GS +9% led the banks.

IBM's warning = an AI-capex crowding-out effect　Krishna: customers re-prioritized capex toward servers/storage/memory 'ahead of price hikes'; IBM 'underestimated the scale of this crowding-out,' with infrastructure revenue -7%.7/15 BofA/Morgan Stanley/Goldman + ASML earnings, 7/16 Netflix + TSMC callsare the key tests of whether the memory/semiconductor V-reversal can continue.

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🏛 Market Backdrop 7/14 close

SPY S&P 500

$751.83

Session +0.36%

Index 7,543.59（+0.38%）

QQQ Nasdaq 100

$719.69

Session +1.12%

Composite 26,107.01（+0.90%）

IWM Russell 2000

$294.51

Session +0.35%

Small/mid caps stabilized in tandem

SMH Semiconductor ETF

$600.31

Session +2.51%

Memory leads, a V-reversal from the 7/13 bloodbath

🌡 Macro Risk Signals 7/14 close · Futu / CNN actuals

VIX / VXN volatility

VIX 16.50 -3.85%

VXN 26.28 -3.74%

VIX eased from 17.16 to 16.50 and VXN fell from 27.30 to 26.28 — a triple tailwind of cool CPI + bank-earnings beats + a memory V-reversal dissolved 7/13's hedging demand; panic never spun out of control, just a one-day pulse that gave back.

10Y / 2Y Treasury yields

about 4.59%

10Y -2bp lower

10Y fell from about 4.61% to about 4.59%: June CPI cooler than expected (energy pulled back) suppressed the inflation premium and eased yields; a positive support for high-multiple growth stocks, aligned with the semiconductor V-reversal.

DXY dollar / WTI crude

100.94

The dollar for the session -0.33%

DXY 100.94（-0.33%）weakened as yields fell; USO crude ETF +2.02% to 120.17 — the Hormuz geopolitical premium persists but its rise is narrowing; the June CPI energy component already reflects the post-ceasefire pullback.

Fear & Greed Index

about 50-53, neutral

recovered from about 42-45 on 7/13 (estimated)

7/14 breadth turned green 92:82 + VIX -3.85% + semiconductor V-reversal → estimated recovery from about 42-45 on 7/13 to about 50-53 (neutral); sentiment steadied but is not overheated, leaving room to push higher.(estimated, not a real-time official reading)

S&P 500 valuation

PE ~25.1 (trailing)

Fwd PE ~21.7

The index +0.38% to 7,543.59; forward P/E rose with price to ~21.7, still above the 10-year average of 18.9; cool CPI + across-the-board bank-earnings beats held valuations up, and Q2 earnings-season profit validation is unfolding smoothly.(not a real-time official figure)

Nasdaq 100 valuation

PE ~31.9 (trailing)

Fwd PE ~24.9

QQQ +1.12% led, its multiple recovering from ~31.6 to ~31.9; the semiconductor/memory V-reversal (SMH +2.51%) + cybersecurity CRWD +12.14% drove an internal valuation repair, though CPUs (ARM/QCOM) and high-multiple software (NOW) lagged.(not a real-time official figure)

📅 Earnings / Key Events, Next 2 Weeks 7/14 - 7/28

📌 Major Tech / Financial / Consumer Earnings

Completed	IBM pre-market warning = worst on record -25.21% (7/14) Q2 revenue $17.2B (< $17.86B), EPS $2.93 (< $3.02); infrastructure -7%, customers shifted capex to memory/servers. All five major banks beat (GS profit +78%).
7/15 (Wed) ⭐⭐	BofA / Morgan Stanley / Goldman + ASML ★Today ASML +2.87% on 7/14, rebounding into earnings — if IBM's 'customers grabbing memory' extends to long EUV equipment orders, it would be the first equipment validation of the memory-capex narrative; watch investment-banking trading/IPO momentum.
7/16 (Thu) ⭐⭐⭐	Netflix after-hours + TSMC ★most critical this cycle TSMC's tone on AI capex and advanced-node demand = the ultimate arbiter of whether the memory/semiconductor V-reversal can continue; IBM already signaled 'customers grabbing hardware,' and if TSMC echoes it the rebound is confirmed.
7/22 (Wed) ⭐⭐	Tesla Q2 earnings After Q2 deliveries beat + Robotaxi expansion, margins and per-vehicle economics are key; TSLA steadied with the market, 20D near flat.
7/23-24 ⭐⭐	Start of Big Tech earnings week (Alphabet, etc.) The 'software capex crowded out by memory' risk that IBM revealed will be a common watchpoint across cloud/software giants' earnings; where AI capex flows drives sub-sector divergence.

📊 Macro / Policy Events

Released	June CPI cooler than expected (7/14) Headline -0.4% m/m, 3.5% y/y (< 3.8% expected); core flat m/m, 2.6% y/y. Driven by energy pulling back after the Iran ceasefire — yield-friendly, with 10Y down to about 4.59%.
7/16 (Thu)	June retail sales + PPI A test of consumer resilience; after CPI cooled, retail and PPI are more critical to confirming the 'soft landing' path.
7/28-29 (Tue-Wed) ⭐⭐	FOMC rate decision ★the late-month headliner July rate decision; cooling CPI strengthens rate-cut expectations, while Warsh's 'not job done' preserves flexibility — cooling employment vs. the inflation path sets the tone for H2.
Ongoing watch ⭐	U.S.-Iran, Strait of Hormuz (fragile ceasefire) June CPI already reflects the post-ceasefire energy pullback; but USO still +2.02% on 7/14 = the geopolitical premium hasn't cleared, and the durability of the ceasefire is a variable for oil and the CPI path.
Ongoing watch	The AI-capex 'crowding out software' theme (ignited by IBM) IBM revealed customers shifting budgets toward memory/hardware, crowding out software licensing — if it becomes widespread, it will reshape capital allocation between software and hardware/memory.

💡 Key Observations

📈 Top Gainers of the Day (Top 200 · 1D)

SKHY +26.32%、CRWD +12.14%、GS +9.00%、DELL +7.12%、PANW +6.84%、SNDK +5.01%、MU +4.92%、LRCX +4.90%、NET +4.53%、INTC +4.50%、SCCO +4.50%、NVDA +4.06%。
Memory/semiconductor V-reversal + cybersecurity + investment banksled gains — SK Hynix ADRs rebounded violently, the memory chain broadly recovered, CRWD led a cybersecurity surge, and GS popped +9% on earnings.

📉 Top Losers of the Day (Top 200 · 1D)

IBM -25.21% (worst on record)、ISRG -6.78%、SYK -6.15%、ARM -5.96%、NOW -5.76%、C -5.29%、MDT -5.11%、BMY -4.03%、ABT -3.42%、PGR -3.37%、QCOM -3.20%。
IBM crash + medtech/pharma + high-multiple software/CPU — IBM's warning fell alone; money sold defensives (medtech) and lagging CPUs (ARM/QCOM) to rotate into memory.

🔎 Key Story 1: IBM's worst-ever -25.21% is actually ironclad proof of the memory bull

IBM pre-market warned Q2 revenue of $17.2B (< $17.86B consensus), EPS $2.93, infrastructure -7%; the stock -25.21% to $217.07(worst since 1962, surpassing 1987's -23.7%), single-handedly flattening the Dow. But CEO Krishna bluntly said the main cause was: 'in late June customers shifted capex toward servers/storage/memory, pulling forward orders ahead of price hikes' — software hurt, memory/hardware benefits: within a single day the market repriced the 7/13 memory panic in reverse, with SKHY +26.32% / SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% all V-reversing.

🔎 Key Story 2: Cool CPI + across-the-board bank-earnings beats support risk-on

June CPI m/m -0.4%, y/y fell to 3.5% (< 3.8% expected), core 2.6% — driven by energy pulling back on the Iran ceasefire, contributing over 100% of the monthly decline; 10Y down to about 4.59%. The same day, Q2 bank earnings season opened with across-the-board beats: GS profit +78% (equities trading +72%), stock +9%, Citi +45% (stock -5.29% on profit-taking), BofA +27%, WFC +17%. Cool inflation + strong earnings = risk-on money piling back into semis and cyclicals; breadth turned green from 83:113 to 92:82。

🔎 Focus Stocks: IBM / SKHY / MU / NVDA IBM crash day · memory chain V-reversal

IBM — $217.07（7/14 -25.21%）worst single day on record

• Pre-market warned Q2 revenue of $17.2B（＜$17.86B）, EPS $2.93 (< $3.02), infrastructure -7%; biggest single-day drop since 1962, surpassing 1987's -23.7%.

• Krishna: customers 'shifted capex toward servers/storage/memory, pulling forward orders ahead of price hikes', and IBM underestimated the scale of this crowding-out — software licensing was crowded out by memory procurement.

• The crash instead became ironclad proof of a memory-demand explosion: the same negative lifted the memory chain while dragging software; single-handedly pinning the Dow (+0.02%).

SKHY SK Hynix — $193.92 (7/14 +26.32%）violent V-reversal

• From 7/13's -9.32% to $153.51, a one-day violent rebound of +26.32%: IBM's 'customers grabbing memory' directly rebutted the profit concerns from KIS's 7/13 downgrade.

• The Seoul parent shares, after a worst-ever -15.4% on 7/13, were deemed wrongly sold off; concerns over HBM long-term contract pricing were overshadowed by the 'spot-market grab' narrative.

• The memory chain moved green in unison: SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% / STX +2.05% / WDC +1.40%; volatility remains high ahead of TSMC's 7/16 tone-setting。

MU Micron — $983.12 (7/14 +4.92%）back near the $1,000 mark

• Rebounded +4.92% from 7/13's $937 back toward the $1,000 edge; IBM's 'customers grabbing memory' = simultaneous endorsement of DRAM/HBM/NAND demand across all three lines, with 20D turning from negative to flat (+0.15%).

• Forward P/E just 6.5 is the cheapest end of the entire list vs. YTD +212%; a dual track of cheap valuation + momentum repair.

• 10D still -14.2%, reflecting the aftermath of SK Hynix's listing diverting flows; TSMC's 7/16 call is the arbiter of whether the rebound is confirmed。

NVDA Nvidia — $211.80 (7/14 +4.06%）megacap leads the charge

• Market cap $5.13Tback to the top; 5D +7.55% / 10D +8.63% / 20D +3.22%, all three windows turning positive together, the most stable momentum among AI megacaps.

• A triple tailwind of cool CPI + falling yields + memory V-reversal; megacap semis repaired first, driving SMH +2.51%.

• Forward P/E 16.5 sits in a historically low multiple band; TSMC's 7/16 tone on AI capex is the next catalyst.

🚀 Momentum Picks: 5 NamesSelection logic: a two-factor momentum × relative-valuation screen — strong across 5D/10D/20D windows simultaneously, with forward P/E within the sector's reasonable range (the valuation gate excludes the overly expensive), ranked by combined 'momentum strength × valuation cheapness'; ignores revenue/profit/themes.

1META Meta PlatformsSocial/AI advertising

5D +7.4%10D +17.5%20D +16.6%Forward P/E 18.2 ★cheapMarket cap $1.68T

Holds the top spot: 5D/10D/20D (7.4/17.5/16.6) aligned across windows, 10D the strongest on the list; +0.66% on 7/14 showed resilience, forward 18.2 at the cheap end of the Mag 7 = strong on both momentum and valuation, the biggest beneficiary of high-multiple repair under cool CPI.

2DELL Dell TechnologiesAI servers

5D +9.7%10D +10.4%20D +15.7%Forward P/E 21.3 reasonableMarket cap $295.6B

Rises to #2: 7/14 +7.12% led AI servers — a direct beneficiary of IBM's 'customers grabbing servers/storage'; all three windows aligned (9.7/10.4/15.7) and accelerating, forward 21.3 in a reasonable hardware band, YTD +258% with an intact momentum structure.

3ANET Arista NetworksNetworking equipment

5D +9.7%10D +11.3%20D +11.8%Forward P/E 41.0 reasonableMarket cap $229.9B

Steady at #3: 5D/10D/20D (9.7/11.3/11.8) the most balanced across windows, with an intact laddered structure; +0.78% on 7/14 rose modestly along, forward 41.0 within the networking-growth band, one of the leaders of AI-hardware momentum.

4GS Goldman SachsInvestment banking

5D +9.3%10D +11.7%20D +7.3%Forward P/E 17.0 ★cheapMarket cap $336.3B

Newly added: 7/14 +9.00% popped on earnings — profit +78%, equities trading +72% / investment banking +55%; all three windows aligned (9.3/11.7/7.3) and accelerating, forward 17.0 in a cheap band, a real beneficiary of Q2 investment-banking momentum.

5NVDA NVIDIAGPU/AI compute

5D +7.6%10D +8.6%20D +3.2%Forward P/E 16.5 ★cheapMarket cap $5.13T

Newly added: 7/14 +4.06% megacap led the charge — all three windows turned positive together (7.6/8.6/3.2), forward 16.5 a rare cheap band for a market leader; cool CPI + memory V-reversal drove a semiconductor repair, re-establishing the momentum structure.

*This 'momentum selection' uses a momentum + relative-valuation two-factorranking: the universe is the top 200 by market cap, requiring 5D/10D/20D positive across all three windows, and using each sector's reasonable forward-P/E range as the valuation gate。7/14 rebound reshuffle：META holds the top spot(10D +17.5 strongest + forward 18.2 cheap), DELL rises to #2(+7.12%, a beneficiary of IBM's server grab), ANET steady at #3; GS / NVDA newly added(earnings pop + memory V-reversal, three windows aligned + cheap valuation).Valuation gate excluded: CRWD (forward 134.9), NET (forward 178.5), PANW (forward 85.7) — despite leading on 20D, too expensive to qualify; ADP / NOW / SCHW dropped out as momentum decelerated.

📋 Full ListTop 200 by market cap · 20D gain > 20% · sorted by 20D

Semis · Memory/CPUSemis · Logic/ASIC/EquipmentSoftware/CybersecurityNon-tech ｜Green= 7/14 up Red= 7/14 down ｜Rank / Tenure：▲▼= rank vs. prior trading day (7/13 close), ★New= newly on the board this period, +N= consecutive trading days on board (incl. 7/14), Dropped= was on the board 7/13

After the 7/14 close: the 20D > 20% list rebuilt from 0 → 4 names (PANW / CRWD / NET / HOOD).Cool CPI + a semiconductor V-reversal rebuilt momentum in a single day: cybersecurity duo PANW (26.20%) and CRWD (23.45%) + cloud CDN NET (23.31%) + broker HOOD (21.74%) climbed back above the threshold; close followers META (16.59) / SHOP (16.11) / DELL (15.67) are still a step short. The table below lists the 20D top 10, with gain bars scaled to leader PANW +26.20% as the 100% baseline.

Ticker / Name

Price

Gain (20D)

1D (7/14)

20D

YTD

Fwd P/E

Net income ($100M)

Mkt cap ($100M)

Rank / Tenure

PANW Palo AltoNetwork security

352.89

+6.84%

+4.70%

+26.20%

+96.74%

85.7

8 As of 4/30

2,876

★New

CRWD CrowdStrikeEndpoint security

210.73

+12.14%

+8.28%

+23.45%

+85.84%

134.9

0 As of 4/30

2,146

★New

NET CloudflareCloud/CDN

281.75

+4.53%

+4.81%

+23.31%

+43.74%

178.5

-1 As of 3/31

1,000

★New

HOOD RobinhoodBroker/Fintech

113.45

+3.27%

+0.49%

+21.74%

-1.53%

36.7

19 As of 3/31

1,022

★New

META Meta PlatformsSocial/AI advertising

661.04

+0.66%

+7.38%

+16.59%

+1.63%

18.2

706 As of 3/31

16,780

—

SHOP ShopifyE-commerce software

125.68

+0.75%

+3.12%

+16.11%

-20.05%

53.9

13 As of 3/31

1,631

—

DELL DellAI servers

457.54

+7.12%

+9.65%

+15.67%

+258.01%

21.3

84 As of 5/1

2,956

—

FTNT FortinetNetwork security

166.83

+3.87%

+5.14%

+14.03%

+114.21%

48.7

20 As of 3/31

1,222

—

TMO Thermo FisherBiotech instruments

534.07

+1.05%

+3.38%

+13.79%

-9.86%

19.6

68 As of 3/28

1,985

—

GEV GE VernovaAI power equipment

1,066.01

+2.25%

-1.03%

+13.33%

+56.87%

43.3

94 As of 3/31

2,865

—

＊4 names meet 20D > 20%(PANW/CRWD/NET/HOOD; from row 5 on is a below-threshold reference zone): Net income ($100M)= trailing four quarters (TTM) total, in hundreds of millions USD; 'As of M/D' is the company's latest fiscal-quarter end date, updated after the next quarter's earnings; CRWD's trailing-four-quarter net income is near breakeven (~0), and NET is still lossmaking (red). Forward P/E uses actual 7/14-close Yahoo figures; gain bars are scaled to PANW +26.20% as the 100% baseline.

📋 Full List (5D momentum)Top 200 by market cap · 5D gain > 10% · sorted by 5D

The 5D board holds 1 name: BABA +14.45% remains at the top (5 days on board).Chinese ADRs form their own axis, decoupled from both the U.S. AI correction and rebound; on the rebound day, money concentrated on rebuilding memory/semis (strong 1D, 5D not yet qualifying). With only 1 name qualifying, the table below also lists a 5D top-9 reference zone= where the rebound momentum flowed next (memory SNDK, investment bank GS, semis NVDA/AMAT/KLAC surging in); bars scaled to BABA +14.45% as the 100% baseline.

Ticker / Name

Price

Gain (5D)

20D

1D (7/14)

YTD

Fwd P/E

Net income ($100M)

Mkt cap ($100M)

Rank / Tenure

BABA AlibabaChinese ADR e-commerce/cloud

112.32

+14.45%

-0.44%

-0.03%

-27.88%

12.4

147* As of 3/31

2,692

→0+5

ANET Arista NetworksNetworking equipment

182.57

+9.68%

+11.84%

+0.78%

+36.65%

41.0

37 As of 3/31

2,299

—

DELL DellAI servers

457.54

+9.65%

+15.67%

+7.12%

+258.01%

21.3

84 As of 5/1

2,956

—

GS Goldman SachsInvestment banking

1,140.00

+9.30%

+7.27%

+9.00%

+24.68%

17.0

171 As of 3/31

3,363

—

SNDK SanDiskNAND

1,757.82

+8.66%

-11.23%

+5.01%

+538.65%

8.4

45 As of 4/3

2,603

—

CRWD CrowdStrikeEndpoint security

210.73

+8.28%

+23.45%

+12.14%

+85.84%

134.9

0 As of 4/30

2,146

—

NVDA NvidiaGPU/AI compute

211.80

+7.55%

+3.22%

+4.06%

+12.15%

16.5

1,596 As of 4/26

51,300

—

SCCO Southern CopperCopper mining

182.38

+7.44%

-3.90%

+4.50%

+24.88%

25.6

50 As of 3/31

1,522

—

AMAT Applied MaterialsSemiconductor equipment

595.70

+7.43%

+5.02%

+3.53%

+121.56%

35.8

85 As of 4/26

4,730

—

LRCX Lam ResearchSemiconductor equipment

346.10

+6.12%

-5.65%

+4.90%

+87.02%

42.8

67 As of 3/29

4,328

—

*Only BABA meets the 5D > 10% threshold (from row 2 on is a below-threshold reference zone）：Net income ($100M)= trailing four quarters (TTM) total, in hundreds of millions USD; 'As of M/D' is the company's latest fiscal-quarter end date, updated after the next quarter's earnings; BABA's net income is an approximate USD conversion from RMB (*), and CRWD is near breakeven over the trailing four quarters. Forward P/E uses actual 7/14-close Yahoo figures; gain bars are scaled to BABA +14.45% as the 100% baseline.

🤖 AI Sub-sector Breakdown After the 7/14 close · 20D average

🛡 AI Cybersecurity　20D +21.2%

PANW +26.2, CRWD +23.5, FTNT +14.0. Led the entire list on the day (CRWD +12.14% / PANW +6.84% / FTNT +3.87%) = cybersecurity strong on both profit and growth; all three back above or close to the 20D>20% threshold, the strongest sub-sector.

⚡ AI Power Infrastructure　20D +13.3%

GEV +13.3. GE Vernova +2.25% on 7/14, still strong, 20D steady near the front; nuclear/grid supported by the AI data-center power narrative, with steadier volatility than semis.

🖥 AI Servers/Comms　20D +8.8%

DELL +15.7, ANET +11.8, GLW +4.7, APH +3.0. Direct beneficiaries of IBM's 'customers grabbing servers': DELL +7.12% led, ANET +0.78%; 20D momentum returned to the front of AI hardware.

🧠 Logic / ASIC / Networking　20D -3.0%

ANET +11.8, NVDA +3.2, AVGO +1.8, TXN +1.5, MRVL -20.5, QCOM -15.9. NVDA +4.06% / TXN +2.34% / AVGO +1.32% rebounded; MRVL +2.26% off its bottom, QCOM -3.20% still weak.

🔧 Semiconductor Equipment　20D -3.7%

AMAT +5.0, ASML -4.7, LRCX -5.7, KLAC -9.5. A broad rebound on the day (LRCX +4.90% / KLAC +3.65% / AMAT +3.53% / ASML +2.87%): the memory V-reversal rekindled hopes for long equipment orders, ASML's 7/15 earnings are first in line。

💾 Memory / HDD　20D -6.0%

MU +0.2, WDC +0.1, STX -5.7, SNDK -11.2, INTC -13.5. A broad V-reversal on 7/14 (SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% / INTC +4.50% / STX +2.05% / WDC +1.40%) = the biggest beneficiary group of IBM's 'customers grabbing memory' reveal, with 20D narrowing from deeply negative.

☁️ Software / AI Cloud　20D -6.4%

PLTR +4.5, NOW +2.6, CRM +1.0, APP -9.6, ORCL -30.5. Under the IBM-crash shadow + AI-capex crowding-out worries: NOW -5.76% / CRM -2.14% caught down, PLTR +2.83% bucked the trend; software was the weakest tech sub-sector on the day.

🔩 CPU / Mobile Chips　20D -12.1%

AMD +7.2, INTC -13.5, QCOM -15.9, ARM -26.2. Sharp internal divergence: AMD +2.57% / INTC +4.50% rebounded vs. ARM -5.96% / QCOM -3.20% still weak = the weakest sub-sector; high-multiple IP (ARM) still had its valuation cut.

🏦 Investment Banks / Financials (earnings season)　strong 1D

GS +9.00, MS +2.98, UBS +3.64. Q2 banks all beat: GS profit +78% (trading +72% / investment banking +55%) led; Citi -5.29% on profit-taking; the sector diverged but momentum was broadly up.

📈 Breadth Snapshot Top 200 by market cap · 7/14 advancers/decliners

Advancers

about 52.9%; concentrated in memory / semis / cybersecurity / investment banks

Decliners

about 47.1%; concentrated in medtech/pharma / high-multiple software / CPU

Advance/decline ratio / unchanged

1.12 : 1

turned green from 83:113, advancers over half

*7/14 breadth turned green: 92 up vs. 82 down(A/D ratio 1.12:1), reversing 7/13's 83:113 — gains concentrated in memory/semis (SMH +2.51%)/cybersecurity/investment banks, declines in medtech/pharma (ISRG/SYK/MDT/BMY/ABT) and high-multiple software (NOW)/CPU (ARM/QCOM) = a rotational rebuild of 'sell defensives, buy cyclicals/tech'; though IBM crashed -25%, it was an idiosyncratic event that didn't spread into systemic selling. TSMC's 7/16 tone will decide the rebound's durability.

🔁 7/13 → 7/14 Change Tracker

Stock	7/13 close (back-calculated)	7/14 close	7/14 change	Change highlights
IBM IBM	$290.24	$217.07	-25.21%	Worst on record: Q2 revenue $17.2B (< $17.86B), EPS $2.93; customers shifted capex to memory/servers
SKHY SK Hynix	$153.51	$193.92	+26.32%	Violent V-reversal: IBM's 'customers grabbing memory' rebutted KIS's 7/13 downgrade; 7/13's -9.32% was likely a wrongful selloff
CRWD CrowdStrike	$187.92	$210.73	+12.14%	Cybersecurity led gains, 20D +23.45% back on the >20% board; the endpoint-security demand narrative stays strong
GS Goldman Sachs	$1,045.87	$1,140.00	+9.00%	Earnings pop: profit +78%, equities trading +72% / investment banking +55%, an across-the-board beat that led the banks
MU Micron	$937.02	$983.12	+4.92%	Back toward the $1,000 edge: forward 6.5 cheap + memory-demand endorsement, 20D turned from negative to flat
SNDK SanDisk	$1,673.96	$1,757.82	+5.01%	NAND rebound, 5D back positive +8.66% re-entering the 5D reference zone; recovering from 7/13's excessive -12.63% selloff
NVDA Nvidia	$203.54	$211.80	+4.06%	Megacap led the charge, market cap $5.13T; 5D/10D/20D turned positive together, momentum rebuilt
ARM Arm	$298.99	$281.17	-5.96%	Sold off again against the trend, 20D -26.2% the weakest on the list: high-multiple IP compressed on valuation, didn't follow the semiconductor rebound
NOW ServiceNow	$111.26	$104.85	-5.76%	IBM-crash shadow: AI-capex crowding-out-of-software worries spread, enterprise software caught down
C Citi	$140.71	$133.27	-5.29%	Earnings beat (profit +45%) but profit-taking, a sell-the-news; diverged from GS +9%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical	$407.10	$379.50	-6.78%	Medtech led declines (SYK -6.15% / MDT -5.11%): on a risk-on day money exited high-valuation defensive healthcare

*The 7/13→7/14 storyline: 'IBM's worst-ever warning became ironclad proof of the memory bull + cool CPI / across-the-board bank beats drove a semiconductor V-reversal': IBM -25.21% fell alone, but SKHY +26.32% / SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% / NVDA +4.06% all rebuilt, SMH +2.51%; conversely medtech/pharma (ISRG/SYK/MDT) and high-multiple software (NOW) saw profit-taking, and breadth turned green from 83:113 to 92:82. Back-calculated prior close = 7/14 close ÷ (1 + 7/14 change%).

📝 Summary Core takeaways after the 7/14 close

① Market structure: 'indexes closed modestly green, structure reversed strongly' — S&P +0.38% to 7,543.59, Nasdaq +0.90% to 26,107.01, Dow +0.02% to 52,508.27 (flattened single-handedly by IBM); SMH +2.51%, VIX -3.85% to 16.50, VXN -3.74% to 26.28; breadth turned green from 83:113 to 92:82= money rebuilt AI semis in a single day, the 20D list rebuilt 0→4 names, the 5D board holds 1, the momentum structure repaired quickly from the 7/13 bloodbath.

② Theme 1: IBM's worst-ever -25.21% actually confirms the memory bull: Q2 revenue $17.2B (< $17.86B), EPS $2.93, infrastructure -7%, the biggest single-day drop since 1962; but the CEO bluntly cited the main cause: 'customers shifted capex toward servers/storage/memory, pulling forward orders ahead of price hikes' = software hurt, hardware/memory benefits. The market repriced in reverse within a single day: SKHY +26.32% / SNDK +5.01% / MU +4.92% / DELL +7.12% a broad V-reversal.

③ Theme 2: Cool CPI + across-the-board bank-earnings beats = twin engines: June CPI m/m -0.4%, y/y 3.5% (< 3.8% expected), core 2.6% (driven by energy pulling back on the ceasefire); 10Y down to about 4.59%. Q2 bank earnings season opened with across-the-board beats: GS profit +78%, stock +9%, Citi +45% (stock -5.29% on profit-taking), BofA +27%, WFC +17% = cool inflation + strong earnings jointly supporting risk-on.

④ Theme 3: A rotational rebuild, not an indiscriminate rally: money sold defensive healthcare (ISRG -6.78% / SYK -6.15% / MDT -5.11%) and lagging CPUs (ARM -5.96% / QCOM -3.20%), high-multiple software (NOW -5.76%, dragged by IBM crowding-out worries), rotating into memory/semis/cybersecurity/investment banks = a textbook 'sell defensives, buy cyclicals/tech' risk-on rotation.

⑤ List changes: the 20D list rebuilt 0→4 names(PANW 26.2 / CRWD 23.45 / NET 23.31 / HOOD 21.74), the 5D board holds 1 (BABA +14.45%, 5 days on board); the momentum picks reshuffled — META holds the top, DELL rises to #2 (a beneficiary of IBM's server grab), GS / NVDA newly added; sub-sector 20D averages: cybersecurity rose from +12.5 to +21.2(the strongest), memory eased from -4.9 to -6.0 (all green on 1D), CPU -12.1 (the weakest, dragged by ARM).

⑥ Conclusion and this week's strategy: one IBM negative, two readings, reversed the 7/13 memory panic in a single day — 7/15 ASML/banks, 7/16 Netflix + TSMC are the keys to whether the V-reversal can continue: if TSMC echoes and confirms 'customers grabbing memory/hardware,' the rebound is established and the 7/13 bloodbath is confirmed a wrongful selloff. On strategy: for memory longs (MU forward 6.5 / SNDK 8.4, cheap), use TSMC on 7/16 as the add-on line; momentum picks should focus on three-window-aligned names inside the valuation gate (META / DELL / ANET / GS / NVDA), avoiding the overvalued 20D cybersecurity board (CRWD/NET forward over 100); keep defensive healthcare and high-multiple software (NOW) on hold during the risk-on rotation; volatility fell (VIX 16.50) but single-earnings-event risk (as IBM warned) remains, so always set stops on individual names.

Sources: Yahoo Finance (top-200 market-cap screen + chart-computed 1D/5D/10D/20D, indexes / ETFs / risk metrics / forward P/E / net income; cross-validated consistent with Futu Top 200 page 1), CNN Fear & Greed Index (7/13 ~42-45 baseline, 7/14 estimated), CNBC / Bloomberg / CNN / The Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance / IG (IBM's worst-ever warning, June CPI 3.5%, Q2 bank earnings GS/Citi/BofA/WFC all beat, Warsh's congressional testimony).
This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. All percentages are actual Yahoo / Futu figures; P/E and F&G are non-real-time, unofficial estimates; BABA's net income is an approximate USD conversion from RMB; CRWD is near breakeven over the trailing four quarters and NET is lossmaking; SKHY is the SK Hynix ADR.
DAILY US EQUITY · 2026-07-14 (7/14 U.S. close)

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