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市場速覽 Market Update

熊市後首日止血：費半上週五確認技術性熊市後，財報週前空單回補進場——SMH +0.41%、記憶四雄（SNDK/WDC/MU/STX）五日來首度全紅、MRVL +3.32%；惟廣度 79:118 未翻紅、指數收平盤下（標普 -0.19% 收 7,443.28、那指 -0.05%）。美伊衝突第九夜油價一度破 $85 後回落約 $82、10Y 回升 4.60%；VIX 18.65、F&G 38（Fear）。First stabilization day after the bear: with the SOX in a confirmed technical bear market, pre-earnings short covering stepped in — SMH +0.41%, memory’s Big Four (SNDK/WDC/MU/STX) all green for the first time in five sessions, MRVL +3.32%; but breadth 79:118 stayed red and indexes closed just under flat (S&P -0.19% at 7,443.28, Nasdaq -0.05%). On night nine of the US-Iran conflict crude briefly broke $85 before easing to ~$82; 10Y back to 4.60%; VIX 18.65, F&G 38 (Fear).

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近期關鍵看點 Key Things to Watch

財報超級週：7/22 GOOGL＋TSLA＋IBM（AI capex 第一裁判）、7/23 INTC；7/28-29 FOMC（Warsh 首次主持）、7/30 6 月 PCE。續盯美伊衝突與油價、GOOGL 傳自研「Frozen v2」Gemini 晶片對 AI 硬體鏈的長線影響。Earnings super-week: GOOGL + TSLA + IBM on 7/22 (AI capex’s first referee), INTC 7/23; FOMC 7/28-29 (Warsh’s first as chair), June PCE 7/30. Also watching US-Iran and crude, plus GOOGL’s reported in-house “Frozen v2” Gemini chip as a long-term AI hardware-chain variable.

市場速覽 Market Update

史上最大單日漲點、史詩級 V 型反轉——加權暴漲 1,783.17 點（+4.20%）收 44,232.87，一舉收復 43,000／44,000 雙關卡並站回季線；市值前 200 檔 163 漲 17 跌、19 檔漲停，千金股 9 檔漲停；投信大買 +172.3 億、三大法人轉買 +164.1 億；惟成交縮至 8,569 億、價漲量縮，矽晶圓族群逆勢下跌。 Biggest single-day point gain on record — the TAIEX surged 1,783.17 pts (+4.20%) to 44,232.87, reclaiming 43,000/44,000 and the quarterly MA. Breadth 163:17 with 19 limit-ups and 9 NT$1,000+ stocks locked up; volume shrank to NT$856.9B while silicon-wafer names fell against the tape.

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近期關鍵看點 Key Things to Watch

反彈後評價考驗——市場對「優異財報」反應轉趨敏感、展望能否支撐評價是觀察核心；量縮反彈的持續性與矽晶圓逆勢去化亦待確認。 Post-rebound test: the market is getting picky on “good earnings” — guidance must justify valuations. Watch whether the low-volume rebound holds and the silicon-wafer washout runs its course.

市場速覽 Market Update

科技暴力反彈、五大指數齊漲——科創50 +10.73% 收 1,903 領漲、創業板 +7.05%、上證 +1.79% 收 3,864；三市放量至 2.97 萬億、漲停 121 家 vs 跌停 21 家；半導體全產業鏈總動員，昨日領漲的銀行／煤炭／白酒集體回調＝高低切換單日逆轉。 Violent tech rebound — the STAR 50 soared 10.73% to 1,903, ChiNext +7.05%, Shanghai +1.79% to 3,864. Turnover swelled to RMB 2.97T with 121 limit-ups as semis staged a full-chain rally while banks, coal and baijiu pulled back.

焦點個股 Stocks in the Spotlight

近期關鍵看點 Key Things to Watch

三焦點：科技反彈持續性（量能能否守在 3 萬億附近）；風格單日高低切換加劇、追高與低吸賠率俱惡化；7 月底政治局會議＋WAIC＋FOMC（7/28-29）與中報驗證期。 Watch tech-rally durability (can turnover hold near RMB 3T), violently fast daily style rotation, and the late-July Politburo meeting, WAIC and the Jul 28–29 FOMC amid interim earnings checks.