Daily US Equity Report 2026-07-03 (Fri)
Memory/equipment rout day two as AAPL and pharma defensives lead the counterattack — Dow +1.14% to a record 52,900.07, S&P flat at 7,483.24, Nasdaq -0.80%; June payrolls +57K, far below expectations; VIX eases to 16.15. US market closed 7/3, reopens 7/6.
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US Equities 07/03 [Memory/equipment rout day two, AAPL leads defensive rebound: 7/2 Dow +1.14% to a record close of 52,900.07, S&P flat at 7,483.24, Nasdaq -0.80% to 25,832.67, SMH -4.54%, extending losses; June nonfarm payrolls just +57K, far below the 115K expected, unemployment down to 4.2% (on a lower participation rate); SNDK -14.13% / KLAC -11.51% / GLW -10.81% / STX -10.38% / LRCX -10.19% / WDC -9.92% / MRVL -9.84% memory/storage & equipment names kept sliding, TSLA -7.49% (Q2 deliveries of 480K a big beat — sell-the-news); AAPL +4.84% (foldable iPhone production raised to 10M units), AZN +6.14% / VRTX +6.03% / SPGI +6.01% pharma-defensives led; US market closed early 7/2 at 13:00, closed 7/3 (Fri), reopens 7/6 (Mon)]
Data as of: 2026-07-02 (Thu) US Eastern close, actuals (13:00 early close) · Generated: Taipei 7/3 07:00
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🎯 Today's (7/3) Watch Points
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One-line summary
7/2 (Thu): memory/equipment rout day two; AAPL and pharma defensives led the counterattack — sharp index divergence: Dow +1.14% to a record close of 52,900.07, S&P flat at 7,483.24, Nasdaq -0.80% to 25,832.67, SMH -4.54%, extending losses. SNDK -14.13% / KLAC -11.51% / GLW -10.81% / STX -10.38% / LRCX -10.19% / WDC -9.92% memory/storage & equipment fell hard for a second day; AAPL +4.84% (foldable iPhone production raised) and pharma defensives (AZN / VRTX / ABBV / ISRG) led gains. June payrolls just +57K, far below expectations; breadth flipped strongly positive at 132:67; VIX eased to 16.15.
Dominant themes
▲ Pharma / defensives / financials / Apple-chain rebound AZN +6.14%, VRTX +6.03%, SPGI +6.01%, ISRG +5.87%, MDT +5.04%, AAPL +4.84%, NFLX +4.66%, LMT +4.62%, ABBV +3.99%, HOOD +3.76%, NVO +3.40%, MA +3.24%
▼ Memory / storage / equipment / richly valued hardware keep falling SNDK -14.13%, KLAC -11.51%, GLW -10.81%, STX -10.38%, LRCX -10.19%, WDC -9.92%, MRVL -9.84%, TSLA -7.49%, AMAT -7.35%, MU -5.49%, META -4.90%
↳ “AI hardware rout day two — money rotates into defensives and value”: Samsung/SK Hynix capacity-expansion supply worries + the 'AI capex peaks in 2026' thesis + Meta's cloud-compute-leasing narrative sent memory/storage/equipment down 8-25% (5D) over two days; money poured into pharma, insurance, payments, defense and the Apple chain — the Dow hit a record high as defensives/value broadly caught up.
Policy & liquidity
June nonfarm payrolls +57K, far below the 115K expected May revised down to 129K; the unemployment-rate drop to 4.2% was mainly driven by a 0.3pp fall in labor-force participation to 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021); average hourly earnings +0.3%. Cooling employment eases rate worries — the Dow and defensives benefited; 10Y closed high at ~4.48%
Holiday liquidity + digesting the AI-capex narrative US market closed early at 13:00 on 7/2, closed 7/3 (Fri), reopens 7/6 (Mon); the market keeps digesting 'AI capex peaking in 2026 + memory supply expansion' worries — SNDK still +635% YTD, a sharp but corrective pullback after huge gains
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🏛 Market Backdrop 7/2 close
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🌡 Macro Risk Signals 7/2 close · Futu / CNN actuals
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📅 Earnings / Key Events, Next 2 Weeks 7/2 - 7/16
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💡 Key takeaways
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🔎 Stocks in focus: AAPL / MU / SNDK / NVDA Apple's counterattack vs. the memory two-day rout
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| 🚀 Momentum picks — 5 namesSelection logic: momentum × relative valuation, two factors — 5D/10D/20D all strong in sync, with Fwd P/E inside the industry's reasonable band (a valuation gate screens out the too-expensive), ranked by 'momentum strength × valuation cheapness'; ignores revenue/earnings/stories |
1HOOD RobinhoodBroker/Fintech 5D +20.61%10D +7.16%20D +36.07%Fwd P/E 38.0, reasonableMkt cap $101.5B Three windows aligned + best 20D on the whole list: 5D/10D/20D (20.6/7.2/36.1) all positive; +3.76% against the tape on 7/2, leading a third straight day; Fwd 38.0 reasonable for the broker-growth band — first on both momentum purity and strength. |
2PANW Palo AltoCybersecurity 5D +18.76%10D +23.37%20D +24.12%Fwd P/E 84.5, upper bandMkt cap $283.7B Strongest medium-term momentum + cybersecurity's defensive profile: 5D/10D/20D (18.8/23.4/24.1) aligned at highs, best 10D on the list; just -1.13% on 7/2, resilient; Fwd 84.5 at the top of the cybersecurity band (richness the only demerit) — second. |
3VRTX VertexPharma/Biotech 5D +9.97%10D +15.04%20D +23.28%Fwd P/E 24.6, reasonableMkt cap $134.0B Three windows aligned + same-day catalyst: 5D/10D/20D (10.0/15.0/23.3) stair-stepping stronger; +6.03% on 7/2 leading pharma defensives, new #3 on the 20D list; Fwd 24.6 cheap-to-fair in the pharma band — third on momentum × valuation. |
4ABBV AbbViePharma 5D +7.37%10D +18.01%20D +20.24%Fwd P/E 16.1 ★cheapMkt cap $461.3B Large-cap defense + deep value: 5D/10D/20D (7.4/18.0/20.2) aligned; +3.99% on 7/2, extending, new to the 20D list; Fwd just 16.1 (cheap end of pharma), $460B size damps volatility — fourth on momentum × valuation. |
5NVO Novo NordiskPharma/GLP-1 5D +5.86%10D +15.88%20D +20.07%Fwd P/E 15.6 ★cheapMkt cap $223.2B GLP-1 reversal + deep value: 5D/10D/20D (5.9/15.9/20.1) aligned, reversing off a low base; +3.40% on 7/2, extending, new to the 20D list; Fwd just 15.6, among the cheapest on the board — fifth on momentum × valuation. |
＊This 'momentum picks' list uses a momentum + relative-valuation two-factor ranking: universe is the top 200 by market cap, requiring 5D/10D/20D all positive and aligned, with each industry's reasonable Fwd P/E band as a valuation gate. The 7/2 momentum board fully rotated into 'defense + value' (HOOD 20D +36.1 leading three straight days; PANW strongest medium-term momentum in cybersecurity but at the valuation band's upper edge; the pharma trio VRTX / ABBV / NVO all aligned + cheap, newly added); prior picks META (20D -6.43) and AMAT (5D -9.72) dropped out on negative momentum; GEV out on a negative 10D; DDOG (Fwd 91.1), SNOW (96.8), CRWD (124.3), WELL (70.3) were screened out by the valuation gate; PGR / SPGI / JNJ / CB / V / MA also aligned across all three windows — on standby. All % are Yahoo 7/2 close actuals (cross-checked with Futu); Fwd P/E is Yahoo's same-day value. High-momentum names pull back fast — always set stops and position caps. For information only, not investment advice.
📋 Full listTop-200 by market cap · 20D gain > 20% · sorted by 20D
Semis · Memory/CPU Semis · Logic/ASIC/Equipment Software/Cybersecurity Non-tech ｜Green= up on 7/2 Red= down on 7/2
| Ticker / Name | Price | Gain (20D) | 1D (7/2) | 5D | 20D | YTD | Fwd P/E | Net income ($100M) | Mkt cap ($100M) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD RobinhoodBroker/Fintech | 112.73 | +3.76% | +20.61% | +36.07% | -0.33% | 38.0 | 19 As of 3/31 | 1,015 | |||
| PANW Palo AltoCybersecurity | 348.06 | -1.13% | +18.76% | +24.12% | +88.96% | 84.5 | 8 As of 4/30 | 2,837 | |||
| VRTX VertexPharma/Biotech | 528.04 | +6.03% | +9.97% | +23.28% | +16.47% | 24.6 | 43 As of 3/31 | 1,340 | |||
| AMAT Applied MaterialsSemi equipment | 603.04 | -7.35% | -9.72% | +20.42% | +134.66% | 36.8 | 85 As of 4/26 | 4,788 | |||
| ABBV AbbViePharma | 261.07 | +3.99% | +7.37% | +20.24% | +14.26% | 16.1 | 36 As of 3/31 | 4,613 | |||
| NVO Novo NordiskPharma/GLP-1 | 50.43 | +3.40% | +5.86% | +20.07% | -0.88% | 15.6 | 190* As of 3/31 | 2,232 | |||
| PGR ProgressiveInsurance | 232.22 | +3.07% | +7.74% | +20.04% | +1.98% | 14.1 | 116 As of 3/31 | 1,352 |
＊The 20D >20% main list grew back from 3 to 7 names: HOOD (+36.07) jumped to the top, leading three days running; 4 defensive/value names newly added (PANW / VRTX / ABBV / NVO / PGR crossed the 20% bar on 7/2's rally), KLAC (20D down to +10.84) dropped off after the two-day rout, AMAT -7.35% on the day but held +20.42.Net income= trailing four quarters (TTM), in $100M; 'as of M/D' is the latest fiscal-quarter end, updated after the next report; ＊NVO net income converted from DKK, approximate.
📋 Full list (5D momentum)Top-200 by market cap · 5D gain > 10% · sorted by 5D
Semis · Memory/CPU Semis · Logic/ASIC/Equipment Software/Cybersecurity Non-tech ｜Green= up on 7/2 Red= down on 7/2
| Ticker / Name | Price | Gain (5D) | 5D | 20D | 1D (7/2) | YTD | Fwd P/E | Net income ($100M) | Mkt cap ($100M) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD RobinhoodBroker/Fintech | 112.73 | +20.61% | +36.07% | +3.76% | -0.33% | 38.0 | 19 As of 3/31 | 1,015 | |||
| PLTR PalantirAI software/analytics | 129.30 | +20.54% | -9.07% | +2.84% | -27.26% | 61.7 | 23 As of 3/31 | 3,100 | |||
| NOW ServiceNowEnterprise software | 106.32 | +18.77% | -9.82% | +0.49% | -30.60% | 21.2 | 18 As of 3/31 | 1,096 | |||
| PANW Palo AltoCybersecurity | 348.06 | +18.76% | +24.12% | -1.13% | +88.96% | 84.5 | 8 As of 4/30 | 2,837 | |||
| APP ApplovinAd software | 527.06 | +18.19% | -7.67% | -6.65% | -21.78% | 24.3 | 39 As of 3/31 | 1,771 | |||
| DDOG DatadogObservability software | 260.36 | +17.84% | +4.01% | -1.56% | +91.46% | 91.1 | 1 As of 3/31 | 927 | |||
| SPGI S&P GlobalFinancial data/ratings | 439.89 | +17.67% | +12.78% | +6.01% | -11.03% | 21.5 | 48 As of 3/31 | 1,302 | |||
| SNOW SnowflakeCloud database | 260.15 | +14.57% | +7.82% | -0.40% | +18.60% | 96.8 | -12 As of 4/30 | 902 | |||
| CRWD CrowdStrikeEndpoint security | 193.98 | +14.33% | +3.79% | +0.41% | +65.53% | 124.3 | 0 As of 4/30 | 1,975 | |||
| ADBE AdobeCreative software | 219.72 | +13.60% | -14.25% | +4.14% | -37.22% | 8.0 | 72 As of 5/29 | 873 | |||
| PDD PDDE-commerce/China ADR | 82.39 | +12.40% | -3.52% | -0.16% | -27.34% | 6.7 | 135* As of 3/31 | 1,173 | |||
| AAPL AppleConsumer electronics/iPhone | 308.63 | +12.17% | -0.53% | +4.84% | +13.53% | 32.1 | 1,226 As of 3/28 | 45,330 | |||
| IBM IBMCloud/AI services | 289.52 | +12.10% | -5.27% | +1.14% | -2.26% | 21.5 | 107 As of 3/31 | 2,721 | |||
| ADP ADPHR/payroll software | 242.27 | +12.00% | +6.38% | +2.77% | -5.82% | 19.9 | 43 As of 3/31 | 968 | |||
| MSFT MicrosoftSoftware/AI cloud | 390.49 | +10.67% | -8.62% | +1.62% | -19.26% | 20.2 | 1,252 As of 3/31 | 29,007 | |||
| CRM SalesforceEnterprise software | 166.11 | +10.60% | -12.85% | +1.76% | -37.30% | 10.7 | 80 As of 4/30 | 1,360 | |||
| MA MastercardPayment network | 539.39 | +10.32% | +14.39% | +3.24% | -5.52% | 23.7 | 156 As of 3/31 | 4,766 | |||
| SPOT SpotifyStreaming | 485.97 | +10.14% | -0.32% | +2.86% | -16.31% | 26.8 | 27 As of 3/31 | 999 |
＊The 5D momentum board expanded to 18 names (5D > 10%; 10 the day before): the software/platform rebound week keeps burning (PLTR / NOW / APP / DDOG / SNOW / CRWD / ADBE / MSFT / CRM — 9 software names, most still negative on 20D = gains concentrated in the past week); AAPL (+12.17) newly in on the foldable iPhone story; equipment KLAC / AMAT turned 5D-negative and dropped off after the two-day rout; SPGI / MA / ADP / PDD / SPOT / IBM defensives/value joined.Net income= trailing four quarters (TTM), in $100M ('as of M/D' = latest fiscal-quarter end); updated after the next report; ＊PDD net income converted from RMB, approximate.
🤖 AI sub-sector breakdown After the 7/2 close · 20D averages
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📈 Breadth at a glance Top 200 by mkt cap · 7/2 advancers/decliners
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＊7/2 breadth flipped decisively bullish: 132 advancers vs 67 decliners (A/D 1.97:1), a clear improvement from the prior session (96:103). Gainers spanned pharma/financials/consumer/software/Apple chain with the Dow at a record; losers were highly concentrated in semi memory/storage/equipment — 'index divergence + improving breadth' confirms rotation, not exodus.
🔁 7/1 → 7/2 change tracker
| Stock | 7/1 close (backcast) | 7/2 close | 7/2 change | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL Apple | $294.38 | $308.63 | +4.84% | Foldable iPhone builds raised to 10M units, 5D +12.17 new on the 5D board, market cap closing in on NVDA |
| VRTX Vertex | $498.01 | $528.04 | +6.03% | Led pharma defensives, three windows aligned new to the 20D list + #3 momentum pick |
| HOOD Robinhood | $108.64 | $112.73 | +3.76% | Led three straight days, 20D +36.07 jumped to the top of the 20D board + #1 momentum pick |
| SNDK SanDisk | $2,032.13 | $1,745.00 | -14.13% | Worst decliner on the whole list, -23.3% in two days; NAND supply worries, still +635% YTD |
| KLAC KLA | $266.19 | $235.55 | -11.51% | Equipment's two-day rout, 20D down to +10.84 off the 20D list |
| STX Seagate | $915.15 | $820.16 | -10.38% | HDD storage hit hard, 5D -20.01; WDC in tandem -9.92 (5D -20.19) |
| TSLA Tesla | $425.31 | $393.45 | -7.49% | Q2 deliveries 480K crushed estimates (397K est.) yet sold the news — biggest one-day drop in about a year; 5D turned negative, off the 5D board |
| MU Micron | $1,032.23 | $975.56 | -5.49% | -15.5% over two days, 5D -19.61; Fwd P/E 6.5 deep-value zone, market cap holding $1.1T |
| META Meta | $612.93 | $582.90 | -4.90% | Gave back over half of the prior day's +8.81% cloud-story pop, 20D -6.43 dropped from the momentum picks |
| NVDA Nvidia | $197.58 | $194.83 | -1.39% | Still resilient through the two-day semi rout; $4.72T market cap keeps the market's top spot (lead over AAPL narrowed to 4%) |
＊The 7/1→7/2 theme extended from 'software platform rebound' to 'broad defensive/value catch-up + AI hardware two-day rout': the Dow hit a record; pharma (AZN / VRTX / ABBV / ISRG / MDT) and Apple led, while memory/storage/equipment kept collapsing 8-14%. The 20D main list grew back from 3 to 7 names (HOOD to the top; PANW / VRTX / ABBV / NVO / PGR new; KLAC out). Prior-day close backcast = 7/2 close ÷ (1 + 7/2 %chg).
📝 Summary Core takeaways after the 7/2 close
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① Market structure: sharp index divergence — Dow +1.14% to a record close of 52,900.07, S&P flat at 7,483.24, Nasdaq -0.80% to 25,832.67, SMH -4.54% down -9.7% in two days. Breadth flipped strongly positive (132 up vs 67 down); VIX eased to 16.15 while VXN rose to 27.98 — a rotation regime of 'calm index, violent churn inside tech' is confirmed. US closed early 13:00 on 7/2, closed 7/3, reopens 7/6 (Mon).
② Theme 1: payrolls badly missed — defensives and the Dow benefit: June nonfarm payrolls just +57K (115K expected; May revised down to 129K); unemployment fell to 4.2% mainly on a 0.3pp participation drop to 61.5% (lowest since Mar 2021). Cooling jobs eased rate worries and money poured into pharma (AZN +6.14% / VRTX +6.03% / ABBV +3.99% / ISRG +5.87%), insurance (PGR), payments (MA) and defense (LMT) — Dow record; but hourly earnings +0.3% remain sticky and the 10Y closed high at ~4.48%.
③ Theme 2: memory / storage / equipment two-day rout: SNDK -14.13% (5D -25.27%) / KLAC -11.51% / GLW -10.81% / STX -10.38% / LRCX -10.19% / WDC -9.92% / MRVL -9.84% / MU -5.49% (5D -19.61%). A triple squeeze of Samsung/SK Hynix expansion supply worries + the 'AI capex peaks in 2026' thesis + Meta's cloud-compute-leasing narrative; yet SNDK is still +635% YTD, MU +242%, WDC +213% — a violent correction after huge runs, with no fundamental deterioration yet in memory contract prices or HBM demand.
④ Theme 3: AAPL's foldable iPhone takes over the megacap money flow: Apple reportedly raised foldable iPhone build plans from 7-8M to ~10M units; AAPL +4.84% to $308.63, 5D +12.17%, new on the 5D momentum board; MS sees FY27 iPhone shipments potentially reaching 250M. AAPL's $4.53T market cap is closing in on NVDA's $4.72T — with AI hardware giving back, megacap money found a new 'consumer-electronics upgrade cycle' narrative. TSLA, despite Q2 deliveries of 480K crushing estimates, fell -7.49% on sell-the-news — awaiting margin proof at 7/22 earnings.
⑤ List changes: the 20D main list grew back from 3 to 7 names (HOOD +36.07 to the top; PANW / VRTX / ABBV / NVO / PGR defensives/value new, KLAC out). The 5D board expanded to 18 names (9 software + AAPL / SPGI / MA / ADP / PDD / SPOT / IBM). Momentum picks fully rotated into 'defense + value': HOOD / PANW / VRTX / ABBV / NVO (META / AMAT / GEV out on negative momentum; DDOG / SNOW / CRWD screened out by the valuation gate). Only 3 AI sub-sectors remain positive: Security +11.5% ＞ Equipment +9.0% ＞ Power +3.2% ＞ Memory/HDD -9.1% ＞ Software/AI Cloud -12.4% ＞ CPU -12.7% ＞ Logic/ASIC -13.5%.
⑥ Conclusion & this week's strategy: AI hardware's two-day rout + defensive/value catch-up + a Dow record — money isn't leaving, it's being violently reallocated inside tech and across sectors.closed 7/3 (Fri), reopens 7/6 (Mon) is the key session for whether memory/equipment can stabilize; the cadence ahead: 7/8 FOMC minutes → 7/14-15 banks kick off earnings + June CPI → 7/16 TSMC/ASML week (semi fundamentals check) → 7/22 TSLA earnings → 7/28-29 FOMC. Strategy watch-items: (1) technical bounce vs. trend reversal in memory/storage after 5D -20-25%; (2) persistence of the defensive/value catch-up (pharma, insurance, payments); (3) whether AAPL's foldable story can carry the second half of the megacap rotation.
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Sources: Futu US top-200 by market cap (7/2 close, cross-checked with Yahoo), Yahoo Finance (indices/ETFs/risk gauges/Fwd P/E/net income), CNN Fear & Greed Index (estimated), BLS (June payrolls), CNBC/Bloomberg (AAPL foldable iPhone, TSLA deliveries, memory coverage).
This report is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. All percentages are Futu/Yahoo actuals; F&G and P/E are unofficial estimates.
DAILY US EQUITY · 2026-07-03 (7/2 US Eastern close · 13:00 early close)
This report is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. All percentages are Futu/Yahoo actuals; F&G and P/E are unofficial estimates.
DAILY US EQUITY · 2026-07-03 (7/2 US Eastern close · 13:00 early close)
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