Daily US Equity Report 2026-06-23 (Tue)

US 06/23 [AI capex jitters hammer mega-cap tech; the three indexes diverge: Dow +0.29% / S&P -0.37% / Nasdaq -1.32%; GOOGL -4.99% / AMZN -4.75% / NFLX -5.82% / ORCL -5.00% lead losses, SpaceX -16.43% in a brutal third straight drop; yet memory & semis stand alone strong, MU +6.82% / SMH +1.37%, LRCX +5.27% / INTC +5.19%, GLW +7.65%; VIX up to 17.28, breadth 110:89; MU earnings 6/24 ⭐⭐⭐ + PCE 6/25 ahead]

Data as of: Mon 2026-06-22, U.S. closing actuals ·Generated: Taipei 6/23 07:00

One-line summary

Main axes

Policy & liquidity

🔍 3 Focus Points to Watch

• 6/24 MU FY26 Q3 earnings ⭐⭐⭐— memory names rallied sharply into earnings (MU +6.82% close $1,211, 20D +58.95%, SNDK +4.07%),Micron's post-close earnings tomorrow (6/24)is the ultimate test of the HBM/DRAM price-hike cycle: consensus revenue ~$34.5B, EPS ~19.95, options pricing a ±17% one-day move; Fwd P/E just 10x — whether it can break the “good results, falling stock” curse is a key battle for memory bulls.

• Mega-cap tech AI-monetization doubts ⭐⭐⭐— AI capex anxiety again hit mega-cap internet (GOOGL -4.99% / AMZN -4.75% / NFLX -5.82%); Alphabet was also squeezed by a California court loss + DeepMind talent outflow; SpaceX -16.43% in a third straight drop as the IPO frenzy fades. Watch whether capital keeps rotating from AI platforms to AI hardware — it will set Nasdaq's structural direction.

• 6/25 PCE inflation data ⭐⭐— yields rebounded to ~4.51% as the market awaits the Fed's most-watched inflation gauge; April core PCE already rose to 3.30% (prior 3.20%), inflation stickiness unresolved.This Thursday 6/25, May PCEis key to validating rate expectations; a hot print could again pressure high-multiple tech.

⚡ This week's cadence: 6/18 (Thu) semis snap-back rally → 6/19 (Fri) Juneteenth holiday → 6/20-21 weekend →6/22 (Mon, done) AI capex fears hit mega-cap tech; memory & semis strong against the trend → 6/23 (Tue) FDX earnings → 6/24 (Wed) MU earnings ⭐⭐⭐→ 6/25 (Thu) May PCE ⭐⭐ → 6/26 (Fri) NKE earnings + final UMich consumer sentiment

1MU MicronDRAM/HBM/NAND

Strongest aligned across three windows + cheapest in the field: 5D/10D/20D all rising (23/40/59), Fwd just 10x, at the low edge of the memory/storage fair band (8–25), top of the combined momentum×cheapness ranking; 6/24 FY26 Q3 earnings is the ultimate catalyst — keep a stop into the print.

2SNDK SanDiskNAND

Strong momentum across three windows (15/46/47) + low valuation (12.4x, in-band): the purest NAND price-hike play, strong on both momentum and cheapness, 2nd overall.

3AMAT Applied MaterialsSemicap

Strongest semicap across three windows (13/41/50) + valuation mid-band (39x, band 25–55): benefits from upstream semi capex, strong momentum with reasonable valuation.

4LRCX Lam ResearchSemicap

Semicap chain aligned across three windows (12/35/36) + valuation at the upper edge (51x, within 25–55): the etch leader benefits from advanced-node expansion; +5.27% on 6/22, leading semicap.

5TSM TSMCFoundry

Steady alignment across three windows (10/13/15) + best value (23.8x, low within the foundry band 18–28): high AI-order visibility, stable heavyweight; mild momentum but the highest cheapness and certainty.

① Market structure: AI capex doubts slammed mega-cap tech; the three indexes diverged:Dow +0.29% close 51,712.71, S&P -0.37% close 7,472.79, Nasdaq -1.32% close 26,166.60, SMH +1.37% led against the trend, Russell (IWM) +0.88%.VIX +5.37% to 17.28, 10Y yield rebounded to ~4.51%, DXY held 101.00. Breadth slightly positive (110 up vs 89 down, 1.24:1) — a divergent tape of “heavyweights sold, mid/small caps held”.

② Theme 1: AI capex doubts hammer mega-cap tech and software: mega-cap cloud 2026 capex nears$452B, the market fears monetization lags the buildout, triggeringGOOGL -4.99% / AMZN -4.75% / NFLX -5.82% / ORCL -5.00% / AVGO -4.52%a selloff; software / AI cloud 20D average-9.1%at the bottom and deepening (CRM -14.63% / PLTR -13.04% / NOW -6.70%). Capital is abandoning high-valuation AI platforms; AI-monetization doubts are the new main theme.

③ Theme 2: Memory / semis / equipment stand alone strong against the trend: amid the heavyweight selloff,memory / HDD 20D average +42.2% tops all sub-sectors, equipment +38.2% second.MU +6.82% close $1,211 record high(rallying sharply into earnings), SNDK +4.07% / STX +2.22%, equipment LRCX +5.27% / AMAT +3.74% / KLAC +3.70% broadly strong; SMH +1.37% propped up the Nasdaq. Low-valuation memory (MU 10x / SNDK 12.4x) keeps drawing buyers.

④ Theme 3: SpaceX's third straight drop; MRVL falls on its first S&P day:SpaceX -16.43%third straight drop, the IPO-frenzy fade the day's worst hit;MRVL was officially added to the S&P 500 on 6/22, but -0.88% on day one. Power (VRT +7.48% / BE +5.15% / PWR +5.40%) and pharma (ABBV +6.25% / NVO +6.23%) rose against the trend; defensives + physical AI infrastructure drew capital.

⑤ List changes: 20D main list15 names(20D > 20%):DELL tops at +65.63%, MRVL +61.45% 2nd, MU +58.95% 3rd; memory / equipment / servers dominate. 5D momentum board18 names(5D > 10%):BE tops at +32.91%, WDC +30.15% 2nd, MU +23.41% 3rd; power + memory / storage + equipment at the core. Sub-sectors: memory/HDD+42.2%> equipment+38.2%> AI servers+36.0%> Logic/ASIC+19.1%> CPU+18.8%> cybersecurity+9.9%> power+7.5%> software/AI cloud-9.1%at the bottom.

⑥ Conclusion & this week's strategy: AI capex doubts hammered mega-cap tech and software; the indexes diverged and heavyweights dragged the Nasdaq, yet memory / semis / equipment / power stood alone strong against the trend. Positioning: low-valuation memory / storage / equipment (MU 10x / SNDK 12.4x), backed by price-hike fundamentals, remain core,tomorrow's 6/24 MU earningsis the most pivotal battle for memory bulls — options price ±17%, so allow for volatility and keep stops into the print; NVDA 20D -4.84% awaits a recovery; high-valuation software (CRM / PLTR / NOW) and mega-cap internet (GOOGL / AMZN) stay weak amid AI-monetization doubts + rising rates, so chase with restraint. Next session 6/23 (Tue) FDX earnings,6/24 MU earnings + 6/25 PCEare the week's two key hurdles.