Daily US Equity Report 2026-06-18 (Thu)

U.S. 06/18　[Warsh's first FOMC dot plot turned hawkish and crushed mega-cap tech; all three indices closed lower (Dow -0.98% / S&P -1.21% / Nasdaq -1.34%); yet semiconductors rallied against the tide, SMH +1.29%, led by ARM +5.69% / AVGO +4.30% / WDC +4.56%, with HOOD +8.78% the top gainer; the 2Y yield spiked +16bp, VIX jumped +12% to 18.44, breadth extremely weak at 49:132]

Data as of：2026-06-17 (Wed) U.S. close, actuals　·　Generated：Taipei 6/18 07:00

One-line summary

Main themes

Policy & liquidity

🔍 3 Focus Points to Watch

• Fallout from the FOMC hawkish dot plot ⭐⭐⭐ — Warsh's first meeting effectively 'killed the rate cut'; the dot plot hinted at a hike within the year, sending yields and the dollar surging together. Watch whether yields keep climbing today (6/18) and whether the de-rating of high-valuation growth (software / mega-cap tech) continues — this is the week's biggest variable; the Powell-era 'insurance cut' narrative has formally flipped to 'Warsh tightening.'

• Semis rally vs mega-cap tech selloff ⭐⭐⭐ — Under rising-rate expectations, capital shunned high-valuation software (CRM's forward valuation is expensive, APP -6.90%) and instead bought back the low-valuation semiconductors (MU 9.1x / SNDK 10.7x) and equipment (AMAT +4.35% / ASML +3.54%) that had slumped the prior day. SMH +1.29% vs Nasdaq -1.34% is a rare divergence; watch whether chip strength can carry into MU's 6/24 earnings, or whether it is merely an oversold bounce.

• 6/24 MU earnings + tonight's quadruple witching ⭐⭐⭐ — MU bounced +2.20% today to close at $1,043.19, holding above $1,000, with 20D +49.30%, ranking 5th on the main list; its forward P/E of just 9.1x is the lowest among large-cap semis. The 6/24 FY26 Q3 print is the ultimate test of the HBM / DRAM pricing cycle. Today (6/18) is quadruple witching (pulled forward because 6/19 Juneteenth is a market holiday) plus ACN earnings; with derivatives expiry stacked the day after the FOMC, late-session volatility may be amplified.

⚡ This week's rhythm：6/16 (Tue) semis took profits, the Dow hit a record on financials → 6/17 (Wed, shown)FOMC hawkish dot plot, yields spiked, mega-cap tech sold off, semis rallied against the tide → today 6/18 (Thu) quadruple witching (early expiry) + ACN earnings → 6/19 (Fri) Juneteenth, U.S. market closed → 6/24 (Wed) MU earnings ⭐⭐⭐ → 6/26 (Fri) May PCE

1WDC Western DigitalHDD storage

Strong across all three timeframes, topping the 5D: 5D list leader, 4th on the 20D main list; led against the tide +4.56% on the hawkish selloff day — cloud HDD demand is the firmest, momentum the purest.

2ARM ArmSemiconductor IP

20D gain leader, strongest trend: led chips +5.69% on the day, on the list 16 days running; but a forward P/E of 136x is extremely high — tightly control position size when chasing.

3HOOD RobinhoodBrokerage / financials

Breakout momentum, top gainer of the day: 6/17 +8.78%, 1st on the entire board, newly added to the 20D main list, with volume and price rising together (YTD still negative — a laggard turning strong).

4AMAT Applied MaterialsSemiconductor equipment

Equipment leader, 20D accelerating: bounced strongly +4.35% on the day, 20D +45.89%, 6th on the main list; benefiting from the semiconductor capex cycle as the equipment group strengthened in tandem.

5MU MicronDRAM/HBM/NAND

Momentum + low valuation + event, all in one: held above $1,000, 20D +49.30%, 5th on the main list, with 6/24 earnings as a catalyst and a forward P/E of just 9.1x; leave room for a stop ahead of the print.

① Market structure：Warsh's first FOMC delivered a hawkish dot plot and all three indices closed lower:Dow -0.98% at 51,492.55, S&P -1.21% at 7,420.10, Nasdaq -1.34% at 26,021.66. Rates held steady, but the dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials expecting one 25bp hike before year-end, with the end-2026 median revised up to 3.8%；the 2Y yield surged +16bp to 4.21% (a one-year-plus high), the DXY broke above 100, and the VIX jumped +12% to 18.44. Breadth was extremely weak (49 up vs 132 down, 1:2.7) — a 'semis alone strong, the rest broadly lower' divided session.

② Theme 1: hawkish dot plot and surging yields crushed mega-cap tech：the market repriced to 'one 25bp hike within the year', and yields and the dollar surged together, directly compressing high-valuation growth multiples.Software / advertising (APP -6.90%, NOW -5.80%, SHOP -4.50%, CRM -4.14%) and large mega-cap tech (META -5.44%, MSFT -3.79%, AMZN -3.46%, GOOGL -2.53%)led the decline. The Powell-era 'insurance cut' narrative flipped to 'Warsh tightening' — the week's biggest tail risk.

③ Theme 2: semiconductors rallied against the tide as capital bought back low-valuation chips：in contrast to the mega-cap tech selloff, the semiconductors that slumped the prior day rebounded broadly today — SMH +1.29% against the tide, ARM +5.69%, AVGO +4.30%, WDC +4.56%, AMAT +4.35%, MRVL +3.90%, MU +2.20%, HOOD +8.78%. Under rate-hike expectations, capital abandoned high-valuation software and bought back low-valuation chips (MU 9.1x / SNDK 10.7x); the memory / HDD sub-sector's 20D average +40.4% reclaimed the sub-sector crown, with the HDD duo (WDC / STX) showing the strongest momentum.

④ Theme 3: a rare divergence between SMH and the Nasdaq：SMH +1.29% rose against the trend while the Nasdaq fell -1.34%, reflecting an extreme split between 'index heavyweights (the semiconductor rebound) vs breadth (the other 70% of stocks selling off)'. Today (6/18) is quadruple witching (pulled forward because 6/19 is a holiday) plus ACN earnings; with derivatives expiry stacked the day after the FOMC, late-session volatility may amplify; whether yields keep climbing is key to whether chip strength can persist.

⑤ List changes：20D main list 16 → 16 names (removed IBM, added HOOD); ARM +87.71% held the top spot again, DELL +78.24% at 2, MRVL +64.26% at 3. 5D momentum list 11 → 31 names (6/15's surge + 6/17's chip rebound broadly strengthened momentum, with financials / industrials / mining / power all making the list). Sub-sectors: Memory/HDD +40.4% ＞ CPU/mobile chips +40.1% ＞ semiconductor equipment +37.0% ＞ logic/ASIC/networking +25.5% ＞ AI cybersecurity +13.7% ＞ AI power +8.0% ＞ software/AI cloud -2.4% at the bottom.

⑥ Conclusion and this week's strategy：Warsh's hawkish dot plot flipped the rate-cut narrative and yields and the dollar surged; the de-rating of high-valuation software / mega-cap tech was the main source of selling pressure; but low-valuation semiconductors were bought back against the tide and SMH rose against the trend, leaving the market in a clear rotation of 'rate hikes kill software, capital buys back chips'. Positioning: memory / storage / equipment, with low valuations (MU 9.1x / SNDK 10.7x) and pricing-up fundamentals, remain core; HDD (WDC / STX) has the strongest momentum and can be accumulated on pullbacks; MU has held above $1,000 but leave room for volatility ahead of the 6/24 earnings; high-valuation software / advertising (APP / NOW / CRM) and mega-cap tech face valuation pressure in a rising-rate environment, so be restrained about chasing. Watch 6/18 quadruple-witching volatility and the 6/19 Juneteenth holiday; the post-FOMC path of yields and the 6/26 PCE are the next key focus.