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Warsh's first FOMC dot plot turned hawkish and hit mega-cap tech; all three indices fell (Dow -0.98% / S&P -1.21% / Nasdaq -1.34%), yet semis rallied — SMH +1.29%, ARM +5.69%, AVGO +4.30%, WDC +4.56%, HOOD +8.78% top gainer; 2Y +16bp, VIX 18.44, breadth 49:132.
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6/16 (Tue): on the FOMC eve, semis took profits and capital rotated heavily out of chips into financials / value stocks — the Dow set a record on financials while the Nasdaq fell on semis; tonight's 6/17 FOMC dot plot is the final judge.
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6/15 (Mon): US–Iran peace deal ignites, oil crashes -4.9%, tech surges into FOMC week. Nasdaq +3.07% to 26,683.94 (strongest since 3/31), S&P +1.65%, Dow +0.92%. Memory/storage/equipment led — MU first cleared $1,000 (+10.84%), SNDK held $2,000, WDC +16.10%.
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US stocks rebounded broadly on 6/11: Trump called off the Iran strikes, oil fell 4%, and SpaceX's record IPO lights up today — Dow +930 pts (+1.86%) to 50,848, S&P +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%, SMH +6.75%; SNDK +14.50% / KLAC +12.92% / MU +11.66% led memory and equipment; ORCL -8.53% post-earnings; VIX -12
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US stocks 6/10: CPI spiked to 4.2% (3-yr high) as the US struck Iran a second straight day — Dow -953 pts below 50,000, S&P -1.62%, Nasdaq -1.98%, SMH -3.40%; defensives/energy bucked the trend; ORCL beat but $55.7B capex + $50B raise sent it -7% after hours; VIX 22.22.
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U.S. stocks 6/9: tech rebound given back in one day, value rotation returns — Trump again floats military action against Iran + pre-CPI hedging; chips / AI software fell across the board. Dow +0.17%, S&P -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.97%, VIX +5.02% to 19.87
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U.S. stocks 6/8: semiconductor relief rally — chips recovered across the board (INTC +11.19%, MU +9.87%, MRVL +9.63%, SMH +5.00%); MRVL confirmed to join the S&P 500 on 6/22. Nasdaq +0.86%, S&P +0.30%, Dow -0.16%, VIX -12.04% to 18.92