Daily US Equity Report 2026-07-21 (Tue)
7/20 (Mon) "first breather after the bear" — semis stanch losses on short covering as indexes close near flat under US-Iran risk; breadth 79:118, F&G 38 Fear; all 5 names stay on the 20D list, 5D board 4→1 (ABT).
US Equities 07/21 [7/20 (Mon) semiconductors stanch the bleeding off bear-market lows: pre-earnings-week short covering MRVL +3.32% / SNDK +2.67% / MSFT +2.15% / INTC +2.13%; memory's Big Four all green for the first time in five sessions; GOOGL +1.51% reportedly developing in-house "Frozen v2" Gemini chip; ninth night of the US-Iran conflictcrude briefly topped $85 intraday; indexes closed just below flat S&P -0.19% at 7,443.28, Dow -0.59% at 51,839.26, Nasdaq -0.05% at 25,508.07; earnings landmines HDB -10.54%, ORCL -3.98% stayed weak; breadth 79:118, F&G 38 Fear; all 5 names stay on the 20D list, 5D board 4→1 (ABT)]
Data as of: 2026-07-20 (Mon) US Eastern close actuals · Generated: Taipei 7/21 07:00
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🎯 Today's (7/21) Watch Points
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One-line summary
7/20 (Mon) "first breather after the bear" — semis stanch losses on short covering; indexes close near flat under US-Iran risk: after the SOX confirmed a technical bear market last Friday, short covering stepped in ahead of earnings week, SMH +0.41%; memory's Big Four all green for the first time in five sessions (SNDK +2.67% / WDC +2.14% / MU +1.94% / STX +1.88%), MRVL +3.32% / INTC +2.13% / MSFT +2.15%; GOOGL +1.51% reportedly building "Frozen v2" dedicated Gemini silicon (claimed 6-10x efficiency, 2028 launch). But the ninth night of the US-Iran conflict pushed crude briefly above $85 intraday (later easing to ~$82 on diplomatic signals; USO +1.25%); the three majors closed just below flat: S&P -0.19% at 7,443.28, Dow -0.59% at 51,839.26, Nasdaq -0.05% at 25,508.07; HDB earnings -10.54%, ORCL -3.98% / DELL -3.65% stayed weak. Breadth 79:118, still bearish, VIX eased to 18.65, official F&G 38 (Fear).All 5 names remain on the 20D list; 5D board 4→1 (ABT only). Dominant themes
▲ China ADRs + beaten-down semis/memory rebound BABA +4.67%, MRVL +3.32%, SPOT +2.97%, SNDK +2.67%, PDD +2.27%, ISRG +2.24%, MSFT +2.15%, WDC +2.14%, INTC +2.13%, PGR +2.06%, SNOW +2.02%, GEV +2.02%, AVGO +1.98%, MU +1.94%, STX +1.88% ▼ Earnings landmines + profit-taking in prior leaders HDB -10.54%, ORCL -3.98%, KKR -3.93%, UPS -3.88%, DELL -3.65%, SPCX -3.34%, TSLA -2.96%, LLY -2.73%, AAPL -2.14%, NET -1.89% ↳ Opposite of 7/17's "broad selloff + energy alone strong" — 7/20 was a pre-earnings reset day of "oversold bounce + leader/laggard rotation": last week's worst-hit memory/semis were bought back on short covering while last week's havens (AAPL -2.14% / LLY -2.73% / most energy fading) got trimmed; but breadth 79:118 never turned green = the bounce is technical, direction to be set by GOOGL/TSLA earnings on 7/22. Policy & Liquidity
Ninth night of US-Iran conflict; crude briefly broke $85 US strikes on Iran for a ninth straight night with further US casualties; crude spiked above $85 intraday then eased to ~$82 on signs an international mediation plan had reached Iran (USO +1.25% at 125.51, 5D +6.55%) = geopolitical premium intact; inflation worries lifted the 10Y back to 4.60% (+6bp), DXY 101.00. Earnings super-week kicks off: AI capex's first referee on 7/22 77 S&P constituents report this week: 7/22 GOOGL + TSLA + IBM, 7/23 INTC, with GM/VZ/T/LMT to follow; after the Kimi K3 open-source shock, what the market needs most is the megacaps' endorsement via higher capex — analysts raised GOOGL/TSLA/IBM/INTC estimates into earnings week = the rally's fuel and risk share one source. FOMC countdown: one week 7/28-29 is Warsh's first FOMC as chair, with June PCE on 7/30; twin-cool inflation + softening retail vs the fresh inflation risk of $82 crude — the rate-cut path narrative becomes month-end's biggest variable. |
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