Daily US Equity Report 2026-07-18 (Sat)
Fri 7/17: Kimi K3 shock — China's open-source model sparks a 'DeepSeek moment 2.0'; the SOX confirms a technical bear market (-11% this week). Earnings landmines ISRG -14.15%, NFLX -7.26%; oil tops $80, energy alone strong; Nasdaq -1.40%, S&P -1.01%; VIX 18.77, F&G 37 Fear.
US Equities 07/18 — [Fri 7/17: China's Kimi K3 open-source model sparks a “DeepSeek moment 2.0”; the SOX confirms a technical bear market (SOX -11% this week, worst week since Apr 2025): earnings landmines ISRG -14.15% / CDNS -9.47% / NFLX -7.26%, SMH -2.18%; Mideast tensions push oil above $80, energy alone stays strong — EQNR +4.88% / TTE +3.26% / VLO +3.13%; HDD rebound STX +5.66% / WDC +2.23%; Nasdaq -1.40% to 25,520.24, S&P -1.01% to 7,457.69, Dow -0.77% to 52,146.42; VIX +12.19% to 18.77, F&G down to 37 (Fear), breadth 61:138; 20D list 3→5 names, 5D board 0→4 (energy moves in)]
Data as of: Fri 2026-07-17 US close (actuals) · Published: Taipei 7/18 07:00
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🎯 Today's (7/18) Watch Points
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One-line summary
Fri 7/17 — “Kimi K3 shock; SOX confirms bear market” — selling spreads from memory to all of semis, energy the lone oasis: Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled at WAIC Shanghai the open-source model Kimi K3 (claimed to rival the best from OpenAI/Anthropic); the “more compute” investment thesis is again in doubt and the market is calling it a “DeepSeek moment 2.0”. The SOX has fallen more than 20% from its late-June high, confirming a technical bear market (SOX -11% this week, worst since the Apr-2025 tariff crash; global semis have shed ~$3.3T in market cap since 6/22): SMH -2.18%, AMAT -5.57% / KLAC -3.02% / CDNS -9.47%; earnings added two more landmines NFLX -7.26% (revenue miss + weak guidance), ISRG -14.15% (beat but no raise). Mideast conflict escalation lifts oil above $80, energy the only advancing sector: EQNR +4.88% / TTE +3.26% / VLO +3.13% / SHEL +2.63%, memory diverges for a fourth day — HDD rebound STX +5.66% / WDC +2.23% but SNDK -3.99% stays weak. Nasdaq -1.40% to 25,520.24, S&P -1.01% to 7,457.69, Dow -0.77% to 52,146.42; VIX +12.19% to 18.77, official F&G reading down to 37 (Fear), breadth 61:138 — broad decline. 20D list 3→5 names (ADBE/NET in); 5D board 0→4 (energy moves in). Dominant themes
▲ Energy/refiners surge across the board + HDD rebound STX +5.66%, EQNR +4.88%, TTE +3.26%, VLO +3.13%, PBR +2.86%, SHEL +2.63%, CB +2.46%, CNQ +2.40%, WDC +2.23%, MPC +2.21%, GEV +2.09%, CSCO +2.08%, BP +2.00% ▼ Earnings landmines + semi equipment/EDA + high beta — ISRG -14.15%, CDNS -9.47%, NFLX -7.26%, HOOD -5.72%, AMAT -5.57%, SPCX -5.43%, SNDK -3.99%, KO -3.96%, SYK -3.42%, KLAC -3.02% ↳ Unlike 7/16's “sell tech, buy defensives” rotation, 7/17 was a risk-off day of “broad declines with energy the lone strength”: breadth swung sharply from a positive 107:92 to 61:138, with gains concentrated in the energy/oil chain (crude +2% above $80, USO 5D +14.04%); defensives (KO -3.96% / SYK -3.42%) and healthcare also saw profit-taking = broad de-risking under the Kimi K3 shock, with bids left only in geopolitics-driven energy and beaten-down HDD names. Policy & liquidity
Rates ease; focus on month-end FOMC 10Y eased to 4.54% (-3bp), DXY flat at 100.75; after June retail sales missed (reported 7/16) + Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony, markets are waiting on 7/28-29 FOMC and June PCE on 7/30; risk-off flows moved into bonds and energy. Mideast escalation; oil breaks above $80 Crude +2% on the day to above $80 (USO +3.91%, 5D +14.04%); Strait of Hormuz shipping risk is rising. The energy chain is the market's only safe harbor, and the refining-margin theme (VLO/MPC top two on the 20D board) stays strong. Kimi K3 open-source shock: judgment week ahead for the AI-compute thesis With a top open-source model freely available, the market is repricing the capex case for the “compute arms race”; GOOGL/TSLA earnings next week (7/22) are the first verdict on AI capex, MSFT/META (7/29) and AAPL/AMZN (7/30) follow — deciding whether the SOX bear market spreads to the entire AI complex. |
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